BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

1.6%

$933K

$500K

2.0%

$1.0M

$250K

3.6%

$4.8M

$200K

4.8%

$1.5M

$190K

4.5%

$429K

$180K

6.5%

$363K

$170K

6.5%

$264K

$160K

7.5%

$419K

$150K

9.5%

$845K

$140K

11.5%

$772K

$130K

14.5%

$889K

$120K

19.5%

$665K

$110K

24.5%

$745K

$100K

38.5%

$1.3M

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

$80K

已实现

$601K

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

$70K

已实现

$44K

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

$60K

已实现

$44K

$55K

54.5%

$2.4M

$50K

44.5%

$806K

$45K

36.5%

$2.0M

$40K

26.5%

$402K

$35K

20.5%

$1.8M

$30K

12.5%

$278K

$25K

9.5%

$709K

$20K

7.5%

$299K

$15K

5.7%

$4.6M

$10K

3.5%

$544K

$5K

1.8%

$460K